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đź’ˇ IDEAS 6 Currencies With A Bright Future

The year 2011 was a year of economic uncertainty for the financial markets the world over, especially the eurozone. With its deepening financial crisis, the euro has lost value rapidly. Another currency, the Brazilian real, which was everyone's favorite in 2010, dropped significantly in 2011. With strong expectations, investors have been pouring their money into the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen; since the beginning of the year, the yen has risen by 6% and is expected to remain bullish in 2012. In this article, we will take a look at six currencies that are expected to do well in the year 2012, based on research from Morgan Stanley.

U.S. Dollar
At the beginning of the year, the USD/EUR was around 0.76. The dollar then weakened against the euro, and was at a low of 0.68 in the first week of May. Since then, the dollar has been strengthening as the crisis in the euro deepens. The U.S. dollar is expected to continue to strengthen in the year 2012, against all G10 currencies except the Japanese yen. The U.S. dollar has been the biggest beneficiary of the crisis in the eurozone, and will continue to be, unless there is some resolution in sight.

Japanese Yen
Even though the Japanese yen has a huge sovereign debt problem, with the country's current debt-to-GDP ratio standing at 200% it is considered to be the best safe-haven currency. This is because Japan is funding its own debt, so the demand for bonds is mostly internal. It has had a consistent current account surplus since 1988 and is steadily benefiting from the repatriation flows, as Japanese companies and investors bring funds home. One hurdle in the yen's growth is the intervention by the Bank of Japan; however, this is not going to affect the yen in the long-term.

New Zealand Dollar
New Zealand's banks depend heavily on external funding, which may be difficult to get in a situation of economic stress. The country's private sector is deleveraging and it also has close ties with emerging markets and China. With all of these factors, the New Zealand dollar may depreciate in the short-term, but it will be strong in the long term. New Zealand has an annual GDP growth rate of over 2.5%, and consumer spending is on the rise. In the coming year, there could be a hike in interest rates, and there is a continued demand for New Zealand's agricultural trade.

Mexican Peso
The Mexican peso has been weakening for some time, and because of the global market stress analysts are expecting it to perform well in 2012. Mexico has strong fundamentals, such as low public debt and budget deficit, and has also exhibited steady growth. Mexico has foreign exchange reserves close to $140 billion and ample sources of local finance. Further, the country's central bank's non-intervention to buy USD to defend the peso will make the peso a bullish currency.

Turkish Lira
Analysts are bullish on the lira in the long-term and they expect it to outperform most emerging markets in 2012. This is because Turkey's central bank protects its currency from speculative attacks, and also keeps the interest rates high in the near-term. Even the country's current deficit is declining because of reducing domestic demand, and it has very little exposure to the crisis in eurozone. Analysts are predicting a decline in the lira's value in the beginning of the year, but they are bullish on it in the long run, especially compared to others in the region.

Russian Ruble
The Russian ruble is also expected to be a strong performer in 2012. The biggest reason for the ruble's bullish trend is the country's central bank policy, as Russia's leaders are expected to relax the exchange rate controls in 2012. The Russian economy is also expected to grow and expand by at least 5% in the coming year. The currency will face upside pressure emanating from renewed geo-political tensions in oil-producing nations.

The Bottom Line
These are the currencies that are expected to rise in 2012. Other currencies, such as the euro, pound sterling, Canadian dollar and Brazilian real, may lose some of their value. Do your research and invest in these currencies to have a rewarding year ahead.
 
Man, 2011 was seriously wild if you were keeping an eye on global markets. Uncertainty was basically the word of the year, with the whole eurozone literally falling apart in slow-motion and dragging everyone else into the mess. The euro took a nosedive—and honestly, seeing the Brazilian real crumble after being the teacher’s pet just a year before? Kind of jaw-dropping. With all that chaos, investors clung to safe-haven currencies like the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen—classic move. Yen shot up 6% by year’s end. Folks were betting it’d keep crushing it into 2012.

So, Morgan Stanley’s research served up a hot list: six currencies with serious upside for 2012, plus a few heads-up for people craving a piece of the action.

U.S. Dollar (USD):
The dollar—what can you even say, it’s like that one reliable friend who absolutely never flakes. Yeah, it wobbled at the start, dropping from 0.76 USD/EUR to about 0.68 in May. But then, as Europe continued to spontaneously combust, the dollar bounced back hard. Investors just trust it, especially when the world’s on fire. No end to eurozone drama? Dollar’s probably not going anywhere but up, except maybe versus the yen.

Japanese Yen (JPY):
Now, Japan’s government might be buried under mountains of debt—over 200% of their GDP!—but somehow, the yen keeps flexing. Most countries would panic, but Japan funds most of its debt at home, not from random foreigners. Plus, they’ve been posting current account surpluses since back when people were still using pagers. Japanese companies also move cash back home whenever things get dicey. Sure, the Bank of Japan sometimes tries to smack the yen down, but let’s be real, those efforts barely make a dent long-term.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD):
The NZD’s deal is a bit up and down. Yeah, their banks depend on money from overseas and the private sector is still cleaning up some debt messiness, but the basics look pretty strong. GDP’s chugging along above 2.5%, people in New Zealand are obviously still spending, and agricultural exports are holding up well. Plus, if interest rates pop higher in 2012—and that’s not off the table—that’s rocket fuel for the NZD. China and its emerging market pals keep buying, too.

Mexican Peso (MXN):
People sleeping on the peso are probably going to be kicking themselves. After a pretty rough patch, Mexico’s currency looks set for a big rebound. Why? The country keeps its books tight, public debt stays low, and growth hasn’t completely fallen through the floor. The central bank is sitting on almost $140 billion in reserves and isn’t meddling much in forex drama. That’s confidence, right there. The peso’s making a statement: Mexico can hang, even when the world gets weird.

Turkish Lira (TRY):
The lira gets a lot of shade, but honestly, it might surprise people. Turkey’s central bank isn’t messing around—they’ve fended off speculators, kept rates high, and managed to avoid being sucked into the eurozone’s downward spiral. Domestic demand’s cooling off a bit, which isn’t the worst thing because it keeps the current account deficit under control. Lira could take a short-term hit, not gonna lie, but the long view? Not so shabby compared to the rest of its neighborhood.

Russian Ruble (RUB):
The ruble’s about to get interesting, too. Central bank might loosen up currency controls (finally), and economists are banking on at least 5% growth. Not too bad, huh? Of course, politics and oil prices could make things messy, but Russia’s got plenty of levers to pull. Their massive resource sector is basically a roulette wheel for investors—as long as oil prices don’t tank, there’s real upside.

The Bottom Line:
If you’re trying to actually make a buck and not just stress-eat your way through 2012, these six—USD, JPY, NZD, MXN, TRY, RUB—are probably your best bets. Meanwhile, the euro, British pound, Canadian dollar, and the once-mighty Brazilian real? Yikes. They’re jogging in the wrong direction. But don’t get cocky: do your homework and watch your risk like a hawk. Focus on currencies backed by actual economic muscle and not just good vibes. Nobody wants a nasty surprise in their portfolio, right?
 
Despite Japan's debt issues, I view the US dollar and the Japanese yen as reliable safe havens in the face of global uncertainty as I look back on 2011 and look ahead to 2012. The New Zealand dollar intrigues me because of its sustained strength, which is bolstered by trade and growth. The solid fundamentals and potential gains-generating central bank policies of the Turkish lira and Mexican peso also pique my interest. The Russian ruble is a currency to keep an eye on because of its potential for growth and its lax exchange controls. All things considered, I think that diversifying into these currencies—while being wary of the euro and others—offers wise positioning during volatile times.
 
I remember the weight of all that uncertainty, particularly in relation to the eurozone, as I watched the markets in 2011. At the time, I placed more faith in the Japanese yen and the US dollar, and to be honest, it paid off. With all the money leaving Europe, the dollar's strength made sense, and the yen seemed like a safe investment. I will definitely be watching emerging market currencies like the Turkish lira and the Mexican peso in 2012. I prefer sound central bank policies and strong fundamentals. For me, it's about seeing the wider picture and keeping ahead of changes in public opinion around the world, not just about chasing profits.
 

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